U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed oil prices will “drop precipitously” if the United States wins its conflict with Iran, predicting that gasoline prices in the United States could eventually fall below $2 per gallon, even as crude prices have climbed close to $100 a barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions.
Trump made the remarks in a post on his Truth Social platform after global oil prices rose on renewed fighting between Washington and Tehran. He argued that energy markets would stabilize quickly once the war ends and repeated his longstanding assertion that “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”
The comments come as Brent crude traded above $97 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate hovered above $92 per barrel, with investors increasingly concerned that continued military exchanges could disrupt oil exports and commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.
Oil markets remain under pressure
Oil prices have surged in recent days as the U.S.-Iran conflict entered a new phase, prompting fears of prolonged supply disruptions across the Persian Gulf. Analysts say exports through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen significantly, although Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates have continued moving part of their shipments through alternative routes.
Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have raised their oil price forecasts, warning that sustained disruptions in Gulf shipping could keep crude prices elevated through late 2026 and into 2027.
Trump has repeatedly linked lower fuel prices to the outcome of the war, saying the U.S. military would continue targeting Iranian assets if necessary and insisting that Tehran’s energy capabilities are vulnerable. He has also argued that strong U.S. control over maritime routes in the Gulf would help restore stability in global energy markets.
However, energy markets have moved in the opposite direction since the latest escalation. Rising geopolitical risk has pushed gasoline prices in the United States to their highest Labor Day levels in years, while shipping disruptions have added pressure to global fuel supplies.
While Trump predicted a rapid decline in oil and gasoline prices after a U.S. victory, market analysts say prices will continue to depend on the duration of the conflict, shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and global supply-demand balances. Continued military exchanges between Washington and Tehran remain one of the biggest sources of uncertainty for international energy markets.
