Wais Ahmad Baheen
wais.baheen@gmail.com
Stability in Asia and in Afghanistan depends on the role that China, India and Russia play. It has been four years since the former president of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai in Peking University emphasized on the role of Russia, China and India for peace and stability in Asia. Now the three countries legitimate interests and problems of cooperation in Afghanistan becomes even more prominent.
In 1993 President Yeltsin and in 1996 Prime Minister Primakov suggested a possible Russia-India-China strategic triangle and since 2002 the three countries have been holding tripartite dialogue in which Afghanistan is one of its main issue. China, Russia and India faces the challenges of terrorism, drugs and separatism in the region. Lashkare-e-Taeba, Uighur Militants, Islamic Movements of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Al-Qaeda and ISIS, all these groups have gathered in this region in Pakistan’s northern tribal areas. Before 2001 during the regime of Taliban Afghanistan was a safe haven for these groups where they could train and use their bases against other countries.
Hence this is why Russia, China and India understand that instability in Afghanistan could once again transform this country into a major source of threat to the region. Moscow thinks that the West, especially the United State is using the Taliban and other terrorist groups as pressure and disruptive forces in Central Asia and Against Russia’s interest. This ideology of Russia is also seemingly supported by China.
On other hand, Beijing, Moscow, and New Delhi believe that the main threat in Afghanistan is terrorism, however their view on the source of threat is not identical. While India and Russia consider negotiation with Taliban impractical and consider them as the Pakistan’s supported forces for its geopolitical intentions, China argue that Pakistan can play an important role in the peace process. China believe that because the international forces are still in Afghanistan and internal problems including unemployment and weak institution have allowed Taliban to recruit better, Hence Afghanistan government have to enter into negotiations with Taliban and make them part of the political process. Chinese experts do not hide that in the after draw of international forces, Pakistan can be among the countries that could fill the void in Afghanistan. But Afghans opinion is strongly against any kind of security cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Common Interests
Afghanistan has strategic relation with India and China, and relations with Russia have improved considerably in recent years. Among the Asian countries, India is the second biggest donor nation to Afghanistan, which has donated more than 2 billion dollar. Public development projects, Salma dam (friendship dam) and Zaaraj-Delarm road are examples of India’s friendship. China is expected to donate more than one billion dollar to Afghanistan by year 2017. All three countries have been contributing in training Afghan security force to a limited level, and providing scholarship to Afghan civil workers and students.
China, Russia and India have ideological economic ambitious. In 2013 China unveiled Silk Road Economic Belt that focuses on connecting China to Europe and Central Asia to Africa. In the initial plans of Silk Road, although Afghanistan did not have transit role, however there are signs that China want Afghanistan to be “station” for energy and goods transfer.
On the other hand, India is in need of central Asia’s energy sources for its developing industries. However India’s historical problem with Pakistan is barrier to its Connect Central Asia policy. Prime Minister Modi’s recent visit tocentral Asian countries was mainly to find a solution for its policy, which was successful. This means India has chosen the Iran-Afghanistan path in order to reach Central Asia and thus is trying to turn Afghanistan into “station” for energy and goods transfer.
While China and India’s policies to reach Central Asia have been successful to some extend, Russia by creating the Orissa Economic Commission, in which four countries have gained membership, is trying to stand against the West pressure and to strengthen the economic cooperation of Central Asia with Russia by facilitating customs to a large scale. For all these three countries Afghanistan is the crossroad of economic objectives, hence this makes the three Asia’s superpowers to protect their interests in Afghanistan.
Challenges
Despite the historical problems between China and India, the leaders of two countries have taken courageous steps to develop economic cooperation. Both countries, India and China have agreed to increase their business cooperation to 100 billion dollar by 2020.
Russia and China signed the historic 400 billion dollar gas deal. On the other hand, Russia wants to export gas and oil to India through Xinjiang, Which seem to be threatened by Pakistan.
Despite the strategic triangle between the three countries and all three countries being members of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, there are challenges that the three Asia power faces.
India is upset about the China-Pakistan economic corridor that passes through disputed region, Kashmir. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India during his visit to China stated this concern to Chinese leaders. Aside from the China-
Pakistan economic corridor, Indians believe that Pakistan’s supported groups are against their interest in Afghanistan.
Russia in order to preserve its traditional influence in Central Asia also faces a lot of problems. Russia finds the presence of international forces in Afghanistan a threat to its interest in Central Asia.
Afghanistan; Collaboration Center
Russia, China and India, are now involved in Afghanistan to different extend. India is one of the leading donor nation to Afghanistan and second after Japan in region. India and China has taken a number of infrastructure project in its assistance programmed in Afghanistan. All three countries to a certain extend help in training Afghan security forces through long and short-term scholarships.
While the security situation in Afghanistan after the decrease of international forces is worrisome, this in turn can be an opportunity for Afghanistan to attract these countries legitimate interest and help in facilitating cooperation between the three Asia’s superpowers.
On the other hand, terrorist safe havens outside the borders of Afghanistan and instability in Afghanistan can turn this country into a transit station for terrorist to reach Central Asia, China and India. Thus, these countries- Russia, China and India should set aside their differences regarding Afghanistan, and instead of working separately to fight terrorism in Afghanistan, they should coordinate joint effort for peace in an acceptable mechanism. Shanghai cooperation Organization could be the platform for this collaboration. The readiness of China, India and Russia to help the Afghan security forces can be coordinated.
These countries can encourage Pakistan or even pressure Rawl Pindi’s military to bring Taliban on the negotiation table with Afghan government.
Afghanistan can become a collaboration platform for these three countries through an effective mechanism. The legal recognition and respect of countries interest could help the cooperation.
